SHFE tin prices fluctuate at lows during night session, waiting for macro factors to guide [SMM tin morning news]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on August 5, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) opened lower and fluctuated downward slightly during the night session, closing at 265,400 yuan/mt, down 0.27% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Under the continuous effect of the "package" policies, Zhengzhou's real estate market is showing positive development momentum. Multiple local real estate practitioners stated their business continued to improve, with increases in both client inquiries and property viewings, indicating a noticeable rise in market activity. The daily average transaction volume reached 70-80 units on weekdays, with a minimum of no less than 60 units, while weekend transactions were higher, generally exceeding 100 units. Data from Zhengzhou Housing Security and Real Estate Administration also reflected this change. From January to June, Zhengzhou's commercial housing sales area reached 9.97 million m², with a growth rate 0.6 percentage points higher than the national average. The average selling price was 10,659 yuan/m², up 1.42% YoY. (2) Tariffs—①The EU will suspend its trade countermeasures against the US for six months, awaiting Trump's actions this week regarding auto tariffs and exemptions. ②Trump announced plans to significantly raise tariff rates on India due to its purchase of Russian crude oil. India responded that the accusation was groundless.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas like Yunnan. Some smelters may maintain maintenance shutdowns or implement minor production cuts in August (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV sector: After the installation rush, orders for PV tin bars in east China declined, with some producers reducing operating rates. Electronics sector: End-users in south China entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment, with orders limited to just-in-time procurement. Other sectors: Demand remained stable in areas like tinplate and chemicals, without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Overall trading was sluggish, with downstream enterprises having restocked at earlier low-price levels and currently maintaining only just-in-time procurement. Most traders reported transactions of 10-20 mt, while a few traded over one truckload.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]